New MacBook Pro Leak Reveals Stunning Apple Decision

Updated October 25: article originally posted October 23.

Just as the Apple faithful had settled into the idea of no new MacBooks in October, details on a surprising MacBook Pro launch before the end of October have emerged.

The details come from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman. Writing for the Power On newsletter, he says that Apple is preparing to launch a number of new "Mac-centered products around the end of the month."

Update: Tuesday October 24: Apple has set the Mac community alight and confirmed an event for Monday October 30 at 5 p.m. Pacific time (Forbes’ David Phelan has more on the launch).

Unlike the colorful invites to the iPhone launch or even the WWDC keynotes, the digital invitation is a dark background with a rear illuminated Apple logo. The only other detail of note is the event name, “Scary Fast.”

Given this is taking place the day before Halloween, I think it’s clear why that adjective has been chosen. “Fast” is the key to unlocking the event, but it's a key that is missing a few pieces of information. For example, what products are being launched? There’s a growing sense that we’ll be seeing new Macs launched, and with the iMac and MacBook Pro highlighted this weekend, we’ll likely see these products at a minimum.

If these are the new products, then how fast will they be? As discussed below, the iMac and the MacBook Pro have faster options based on M2 Apple Silicon technology. Another option is the M3 family that Apple is working on. Previous reports have suggested that the M3-powered MacBook Air and the M3 Pro and M3 Max-powered MacBook Pro would not be ready until late in the first half of 2024.

Both options would be “scary fast,” so which will be the Halloween surprise?

Update: Wednesday October 25: Those following Apple and the upcoming launch event are debating what Tim Cook and his team have in mind for the Mac platform. The core discussion is over the Apple Silicon that will be used and whether this is the right time for Apple to move forward and launch the next generation M3 chipset or to squeeze one last iteration out of the M2?

Apple Insider’s Mike Wuerthele highlights the curiously late time of day, which is both outside of the regular media hours in the US (and clashes with the World Series); "For the folks going crazy for M3 Macs, you should probably temper your expectations. Apple isn't going to roll out a new processor in a video stream at 8PM. My prediction is a M2 iMac, and that's about it."

Daring Fireball’s Jon Gruber points out a key issue around the supply of the M3 chipset. Given it is based on the same 3nm fabrication used by the new iPhone 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max, is there enough silicon to go around?

“...it just feels too early for the M3 Pro/Max chips to start shipping, when the A17 Pro — the chip the M3 is presumably based on — only started shipping last month. Given what I’ve heard about TSMC’s 3nm production capability — particularly obtaining wafers — I think their hands are full just producing A17 Pro chips for the iPhones 15 Pro."

Six Colors’ Dan Moren is confidently calling out the iMac update, but little else. And if that’s the case, a move from 2020’s M1 chipset to any of the M2 platforms would be “Scary Fast” no matter which chipset is used: "It’s largely expected that this event will feature new Macs... the money seems to be on a refreshed 24-inch iMac, though other announcements are possible."

You also have to consider prolific online leaker ShrimpApplePro, who posted images on what purports to be the retail packaging of “the new MacBook Pro.” The photo shows a MacBook with the newer industrial design seen in the last macOS laptops and a wallpaper that echoes the iPhone 15 Pro wallpaper with dark hues and lit edges. It’s also conspicuously not mentioning any specs of the new MacBook.

One thing to pick out is that, unlike the recent iPhone launch or previous Apple launch events, there isn’t a clear idea of what Tim Cook and his team will be launching. There’s one final thought from Forbes’ David Phelan that should be considered.

Apple announced its “Scary Fast” event the same day as Qualcomm’s launch of the Snapdragon X Elite; reportedly 14 percent faster using 30 percent less power than Apple’s M2 Max. When your two main marketing messages are overtaken, that’s rather scary and you’d need a fast response with whatever you have available.

For most of 2023, Apple has been expected to update its consumer-facing MacBook Air laptops in October ahead of the holiday season. At the end of August, the mood changed and Apple’s updated macOS laptops were pushed into 2024.

The delays were all seen to impact the next generation of MacBook Air and MacBook Pro laptops, specifically those that would ship with Apple’s M3 chipset. A new M3-powered MacBook Air is expected to launch next year, likely late in Q2, with M3-powered MacBook Pros slightly earlier. I’d expect to see these laptops, and the release of the M3 architecture, to take place at Apple’s Worldwide Developer Conference in June 2024.

Which leaves a question of what laptops could be coming at the end of this year? Gurman has cited updates to the 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro models. These currently run the M2 Pro and M2 Max chipsets, evolutions of the base M2 chipset. There is one more M2 evolution of note, which is the M2 Ultra available in the Mac Studio. Adding an additional M2 Ultra MacBook Pro model at the top end of the performance window is an attractive option that does not disrupt the launch of the M3 platform and allows the M3 launches next year to not be overshadowed.

A second Apple Silicon powered iMac is also expected. Again, it’s highly unlikely to ship with the M3 chipset, but given only the M1-powered iMac is on sale, a move to the M2 platform allows Apple to offer new hardware at the end of the M2 product cycle without pre-empting plans for 2024.

It might not be the MacBook that everyone was expecting in October, but Apple’s omerta-esque obsession with saying nothing about upcoming products, this is the MacBook that everyone will be offered in October.

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